Possible scenario
Limited Damage Confirmed
40% Chance
Saudi authorities confirm that a drone or munition struck infrastructure at Khurais, but damage is localized and firefighting or repairs are quickly contained. Given the recent Abqaiq and Riyadh claims, markets price a real but manageable Saudi supply-security risk rather than a 2019-style outage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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