Possible scenario
False Alarm Contained
25% Chance
Initial reports of a direct drone hit prove overstated, with Saudi authorities attributing the incident to interception debris, a small fire, or an unrelated security event. This outcome removes some of the risk premium that had built after the Abqaiq and Riyadh claims.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Tickers
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.