Possible scenario
Yield Reversal
25% Chance
A near-term reversal is plausible because the initial 28 bps drop was large and could have overshot the data. Sticky inflation details, Treasury supply concerns, or profit-taking in long-duration ETFs could push yields higher again.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.3%
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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