Possible scenario
Soft-Landing Rally
20% Chance
Markets may interpret the Treasury rally as a benign easing of financial conditions rather than a recession warning. In that case, equities, credit, and crypto benefit alongside bonds as investors rotate back into risk assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.2%
- Finance +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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