Possible scenario
Bond Rally Extends
40% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that the rally in long-duration Treasuries continues as investors treat the 28 bps move as confirmation that the Fed’s 2025-2026 easing path is back in play. Softer labor data and lower yields reinforce demand for duration-heavy ETFs such as TLT.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.1%
- Technology +1.0%
- Finance +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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