Possible scenario
Direct Nuclear Strikes
18% Chance
The U.S. and Israel conclude that deterrence is failing and launch strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile infrastructure. Iran retaliates, but the scope of retaliation determines whether the shock remains severe but contained or turns into a regional supply crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Bitcoin Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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