Possible scenario
Contained Military Spillover
28% Chance
The crisis escalates into limited kinetic action by Iran or aligned militias, but both sides avoid sustained direct war. U.S. forces harden bases in Iraq, Jordan, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE while Gulf governments press for restraint.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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