Possible scenario
Coercive Signaling Holds
42% Chance
Iran uses the invasion threat mainly as deterrent messaging after U.S. strike planning becomes public. Washington, Gulf governments, and Oman/Qatar intermediaries keep the crisis below the threshold of direct U.S.-Iran war.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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