Possible scenario
US-Imposed Concessions
35% Chance
The Trump administration intensifies public and private pressure on Volodymyr Zelenskyy to accept a ceasefire that freezes most front lines and defers sovereignty questions over Crimea and parts of Donbas. Ukraine resists the word 'capitulation' but faces acute shortages if US military and intelligence support remain constrained.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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