Possible scenario
Managed Peace Process
22% Chance
Washington converts the public clash into a structured peace process involving Ukraine, Russia, the EU, and Turkey or Switzerland as conveners. The most likely version produces talks rather than a final settlement, but it lowers the immediate probability of uncontrolled escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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