Possible scenario
Pragmatic Senate Role
20% Chance
Michelle Bolsonaro uses her first elected office to build a more disciplined and less confrontational political profile. She supports conservative social positions while negotiating selectively with Senate President Rodrigo Pacheco's successor and centrist blocs on fiscal and public-security measures.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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