Possible scenario
Institutional Pushback Intensifies
25% Chance
The victory triggers renewed scrutiny from electoral authorities and the Supreme Federal Court because of the Bolsonaro camp's history since January 8 and the 2025 coup-plot conviction. Courts do not immediately overturn the result, but legal uncertainty limits Michelle Bolsonaro's ability to convert the win into a national campaign.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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