Possible scenario
Bolsonaro Bloc Consolidates
40% Chance
Michelle Bolsonaro's victory in Brasília becomes a rallying point for the Liberal Party and the wider conservative movement after Jair Bolsonaro's conviction. She uses the Senate seat to unify evangelical, security-focused and anti-Lula factions while keeping the family brand electorally viable.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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