Possible scenario
Deterrence Without Strike
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the IRGC's warning remains coercive signaling rather than an immediate operational order. Tehran uses the missile-test cycle to advertise capability, deter Israeli retaliation, and rally domestic hardliners while avoiding a direct clash that could trigger U.S. involvement.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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