Possible scenario
Injunction Gets Narrowed
25% Chance
A plausible alternative is that the court preserves federal protection for some event contracts but limits the ruling where contracts resemble retail sports wagering. This would leave Coinbase and Kalshi with a viable prediction-market model, but reduce the near-term value of high-volume sports and election-style products.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
- COIN-2.3%
- DKNG+1.6%
- FLUT+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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