Possible scenario
Sanctions Drive
20% Chance
The strike gives U.S. Treasury and Israeli authorities fresh evidence to expand sanctions against Hamas-linked money-service businesses. The most likely measures target exchange houses, wallets, and named facilitators rather than the wider financial system.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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