Possible scenario
Litigation Narrows Cuts
40% Chance
States, cities, and service providers challenge the funding cancellations under appropriations law and the Administrative Procedure Act. Given the 2025 funding-freeze litigation history, courts are likely to scrutinize whether the White House can cancel already-obligated funds without Congress.
Secondary impacts
- Business Services +0.1%
- Healthcare +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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