Possible scenario
Limited Retaliation
30% Chance
Iran authorizes limited retaliation through proxies or a contained missile-and-drone action while trying to avoid a full war with the United States. This path is plausible because it lets Tehran answer the Israeli-US strikes without immediately accepting maximum escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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