Possible scenario
Controlled Deterrence
42% Chance
Iran's army sustains the threat of preemptive action but does not immediately launch a large kinetic strike. Tehran uses readiness alerts, missile dispersal and warnings to deter additional Israeli or US attacks while preserving room for mediation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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