Possible scenario
Jet Drone Surge
38% Chance
Russia expands use of jet-powered Shahed variants as its Alabuga-linked production base matures and conventional propeller drones become easier for Ukraine to intercept. The near-term effect is heavier pressure on Ukrainian air defenses, rail logistics, and power infrastructure rather than a decisive battlefield breakthrough.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.