Possible scenario
Hiring Weakness Broadens
30% Chance
Investors conclude that the JOLTS miss is part of a wider loss of labor-market momentum, following earlier downward payroll revisions and weaker corporate hiring plans. The immediate market reaction is more defensive, with recession-sensitive sectors under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Business Services -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.1%
- Finance -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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