Possible scenario
Data Noise Reversal
20% Chance
Traders treat the August decline as noisy because recent labor data have been revised materially. Markets wait for September payrolls and the next JOLTS release before making a stronger call on the labor cycle.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.