Possible scenario
Policy Disappointment Deepens
30% Chance
Officials continue to rely on trading restrictions, ETF purchases and verbal support rather than a large fiscal or property-sector rescue. Investors conclude that policymakers are trying to manage volatility rather than reverse the macro slowdown, extending the bear-market pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -2.2%
- Finance -2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.8%
- Industrials -1.4%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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