Possible scenario
Aggressive Rescue Rebound
20% Chance
The equity selloff forces Beijing to move beyond piecemeal market support. A more forceful package combining fiscal spending, property-developer financing and direct equity stabilization triggers a short-term relief rally, even if longer-term growth doubts remain.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Bitcoin Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +1.7%
- Industrials +1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.4%
- Technology +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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