Possible scenario
Risk Assets Stabilize
20% Chance
Markets may stabilize if investors conclude that much of the rate shock is already priced after the rapid yield move. In this scenario, yields remain elevated, but equity selling slows and volatility eases.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.5%
- Technology +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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