Possible scenario
Fed Messaging Calms
25% Chance
A near-term stabilization is plausible if Fed speakers avoid escalating the hawkish tone and markets treat the move in yields as partly overextended. A modest pullback in rates would support growth equities and reduce volatility.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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