Possible scenario
AI Incident Controls
20% Chance
A contained but visible AI misuse episode gives policymakers a concrete example to connect with the Lancet's extinction framing. The most plausible result is tighter licensing, audits and export controls rather than a full moratorium on AI development.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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