Possible scenario
Symbolic Standoff Continues
27% Chance
The most politically convenient path is a rhetorical standoff: Trump and aligned federal officials use the new label, while New Mexico institutions refuse to comply. The conflict remains symbolic and largely insulated from fiscal or market consequences.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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