Possible scenario
Negotiated pause
15% Chance
Oman and UN envoys use the airport attacks to push both sides back toward a limited truce. The Houthis accept a pause in long-range strikes in exchange for humanitarian and port-related concessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Energy -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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