Possible scenario
Contained airport disruption
45% Chance
Houthi attacks continue to disrupt confidence in Saudi aviation, but the damage remains concentrated on airport operations and fuel storage rather than national energy production. Washington and Riyadh keep travel restrictions in place while Saudi air defenses intercept most follow-on launches.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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