Possible scenario
Air defense reinforcement
25% Chance
Riyadh responds by accelerating requests for US-made missile defense systems and increasing security around civilian airports. The US provides technical support and intelligence sharing without directly entering the Yemen conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.6%
- Energy +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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