Possible scenario
Maritime Pressure Escalates
25% Chance
The partnership becomes part of a broader US campaign against alleged narco-terrorist maritime networks operating near Venezuela, Trinidad, and Guyana. Incidents increase at sea, but most remain below the threshold of state-on-state conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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