Possible scenario
Managed Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
The defense partnership becomes a deterrence and interdiction framework rather than a trigger for open conflict. Washington expands intelligence sharing, maritime patrols, and training while Georgetown avoids provocative deployments near the Venezuela border.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy +0.4%
Tickers
- LHX+1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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