Possible scenario
Slow Permitting Drift
27% Chance
The legal ban ends, but the practical timetable stretches because Italy must rebuild nuclear regulatory capacity, waste governance, and public consultation procedures after four decades. This outcome fits Italy's history of slow infrastructure permitting and coalition bargaining.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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