Possible scenario
Managed Nuclear Revival
38% Chance
The Meloni government converts the Senate vote into enabling legislation, with implementing decrees defining licensing, waste rules, and eligible reactor technologies. This is the most likely path because Italy's gas-security concerns remain strong, while the government can frame small modular reactors as industrial policy rather than a return to 1980s-style large nuclear plants.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +1.3%
- Industrials +0.8%
- Energy -0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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