Possible scenario
Exposure Concerns Escalate
17% Chance
The probe uncovers larger or more opaque exposures than investors expected, including bank credit lines to private-credit funds that financed AI data centers. This would not imply an immediate systemic crisis, but it would produce a sharper repricing of financial and AI-infrastructure risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.1%
- Technology -1.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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