Possible scenario
Quarter-Point Hike
38% Chance
The most likely path is that the Fed follows through with another 25 basis point hike if inflation and activity data do not soften enough before the next meeting. Goolsbee's decision to leave both hike and pause on the table suggests he is not ready to oppose the broader hawkish tilt shown in recent Fed projections.
Initial impacts
- Fed policy rate Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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