Possible scenario
Hawkish Pause
32% Chance
The Fed could pause after September's first hike since 2023 while stressing that inflation is still too high. This would fit Goolsbee's open-ended language and Kashkari's view that a wage-price spiral is not yet evident, while preserving pressure on inflation expectations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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