Possible scenario
Dovish Pause
20% Chance
A clearer inflation slowdown could allow Goolsbee and other cautious officials to argue that the September hike should be given time to work. This scenario would mark a shift away from the recent hawkish projections, though not an immediate return to rate cuts.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.