Possible scenario
Property Stress Broadens
20% Chance
A less likely but important downside path is that high refinancing costs and weak commercial-property valuations expose more troubled borrowers. The RBA still avoids calling it systemic, but markets begin pricing a broader credit-cycle problem in property finance.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance -2.2%
- Non-Energy Materials -1.3%
- Industrials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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