Possible scenario
Sanctions Enforcement Deepens
25% Chance
Washington follows the A7 action with additional sanctions on exchange houses, front companies, shipping facilitators, and regional payment channels. The pressure further constrains Iran's hard-currency inflows, especially from oil and petrochemical trade routed through Asia and the Gulf.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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