Possible scenario
Limited Diplomatic Relief
18% Chance
Economic stress gives Tehran an incentive to test a narrow diplomatic channel, likely through Oman or Qatar. Any relief would probably be limited to humanitarian finance, prisoner issues, or monitored nuclear access rather than a broad sanctions rollback.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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