Possible scenario
Targeted Tax Cut
40% Chance
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi uses the extra Diet session to pursue a limited consumption tax cut focused on food and daily necessities. This is the most likely path because it addresses living-cost pressure while preserving her October cap on annual government bond issuance.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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