Possible scenario
Diet Gridlock Persists
25% Chance
The minority government fails to assemble a stable majority for a consumption tax reduction. Takaichi keeps negotiations open but shifts toward measures that can be passed through a smaller supplementary budget.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.3%
- Utilities +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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