Possible scenario
Narrow Administrative Relief
28% Chance
If Congress cannot quickly align on a full tax holiday, the Trump administration leans on Treasury, the IRS, and the Department of Transportation to deliver narrower relief. This path is politically easier but has a smaller effect on diesel prices and listed transport equities.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- JBHT+0.4%
- KNX+0.3%
- XPO+0.3%
- -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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