Possible scenario
Fast Tax Holiday
42% Chance
The White House works with House Republicans and some fuel-state Democrats to move a temporary suspension of the 24.4-cent-per-gallon federal diesel excise tax. The most likely version includes a Treasury transfer to the Highway Trust Fund to blunt opposition from road builders and state transportation officials.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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