Possible scenario
Israel Offers Concessions
20% Chance
Israel attempts to prevent a deeper rupture by accepting a limited inquiry, sharing intelligence with U.S. investigators, and offering compensation to the families of the Americans killed. This outcome allows senators to claim accountability while reducing pressure for a broader rupture in military ties.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.4%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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