Possible scenario
Tax Measure Passes
45% Chance
The polling lead proves durable because the opposition's $241 million campaign fails to move enough undecided voters. Supporters frame the measure as a narrow levy on ultra-high-net-worth Californians rather than a broad tax increase.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Finance -0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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