Possible scenario
Razor-Thin Result
15% Chance
The 48%-38% polling lead narrows sharply as undecided voters break against the measure, leaving the outcome dependent on late mail ballots. Both campaigns prepare recount teams and legal filings, prolonging uncertainty over implementation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.