Possible scenario
Opposition Defeats Tax
32% Chance
The $241 million opposition campaign eventually converts enough undecided and soft-support voters by arguing that the measure would accelerate capital flight from California. This echoes the 2022 defeat of the high-earner EV tax backed by Lyft.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Finance +0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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